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Hello, I'm Yash Pradeep

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EQUITY 55%
VARIOUS FUNDS 20%
BONDS 10%
OTHER OPPORTUNITIES 15%
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Yash Pradeep
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Yash Pradeep
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Yash Pradeep
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Choose our best courses

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BASICS OF STOCK MARKET
  • What is stock?
  • Stock markets
  • Stock market Index
  • Bond Market
  • ETF
  • Mutual Fund

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VALUE INVESTING—A TO Z
  • The Need to Invest
  • About Value Investing
  • How to read Annual Report?
  • Fundamental Analysis
  • How to pick right Stocks
  • Money Management

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TRADING—A TO Z
  • Trading Overview
  • Trading Psycology
  • Money Management
  • Risk Management
  • Technical Analysis
  • Stock Selection
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Why long term?


In order to get multi-bagger returns one individual needs to follow one simple rule, “Find only fundamentally strong stocks which are undervalued and stay invested in them for the long term.”

Why long term?

Historically, the equity asset class has delivered better returns in comparison to other asset classes. Let’s make it clear with the help of the following example. Ace investor Warren Buffet picks those fundamentally strong stocks which have delivered a CAGR of 29%. Apart from the return, the most crucial factor is that he started an investment when he was 11 years old.
Just look at the following graph.
Return on equity of undervalued stocks
If you make a lump sum investment of Rs. 1 lakh at once and allow the money to compound at the rate of 15%, then you will get-
  • 4 lakh after 10 years,
  • 16 lakh after 20 years,
  • 66 lakh after 30 years.

Why fundamentally strong stocks?

It is because stocks with strong fundamentals represent those companies which have these features,
  • Consistent sales growth at a rate of 10%.
  • Consistent profit growth at a rate of 15%.
  • A debt-free company. If not so, the ratio must be low to 0.10 or 0.25.
  • Strong business model.
  • Sustainable competitive advantage in comparison to peer companies.
  • Good dividend yield.
  • Sustainable EPS growth.
Now after analysis of the above-mentioned points, retail investors are confused about how to pick undervalued stocks.

What are undervalued stocks?

Undervalued stocks are those stocks which trade at prices which are presumed to be below than the intrinsic or enterprise value. An undervalued stock can be picked after analysis of the company’s financial status, fundamentals, valuation ratios, etc.

How to know if the stock is undervalued

The easiest way to pick undervalued stocks is to invest during the falling market.
The next thing is how to know whether the market is falling or rising.
Keep notice if the indices such as Nifty 50, Sensex, Nifty Auto, S & P BSE FMCG, etc. inches towards lower levels.
To get a better idea you need to check the Price-to-Earnings Ratio and Price-to-Book ratio of any index.

How to find undervalued stocks?

Apart from that Ace Investor, Benjamin Graham describes how to pick undervalued stocks in his famous book “The Intelligent Investor”. Here are the parameters you should keep in mind while picking undervalued stocks,
  • Pick a stock which has got at least B+ rating from Standard & Poor.
  • Stocks with a lower price-to-earnings ratio in comparison to peer companies.
  • Any stock with lower Price-to-Book Ratio i.e. less than 1.
  • Stocks with Current ratio of 1.5 or higher.
  • Debt to Equity Ratio is Zero or less than 0.25.
  • Healthy Dividend payout and stable Earnings-per-Share.
  • Cash flow of the company.
  • Current Inflation.
  • Enterprise Value.

Investment Rating

There are many rating agencies which are in operation like Crisil, Morgan-Stanley, and Standard & Poor, etc. You have to follow the rating given by these rating agencies. Generally, B+ rating is an ideal investment grade in which you are free to invest your hard earned money. The rating B+ indicates that the company is stable and likely to grow in the near future.

Price-to-earnings Ratio

Let’s assume, a company has a net income of $ 10,000 per year. It Pays for $ 5,000/- in a preferred dividend to investors. It has 50 shares outstanding.
Earning Per Share
Now, if the stock currently trades at $ 1000, then
Price to earning Ratio
You need to choose such stocks which have P/E less than 9. But P/E varies from sector to sector. Lower P/E ratio of sectors does not mean that this sector is undervalued and is going to boom and deliver a multi-bagger return in the near future with compared to that sector which has higher P/E ratio. These sectors have higher valuation just because the market is bullish on these sectors and their future potential like Automobile, FMCG, Petroleum, etc. They are the core sectors of the Indian economy and have the potential to deliver a robust performance in the upcoming years.

Price-to-book Ratio

You will find the book value of the stock in the balance sheet of the company.
Price-to-Book Ratio
Let’s assume, the stock currently trades at $ 100 and the book value per share is $ 10 then,
P/B Ratio =         [$100/$ 10] = 10.
You need to pick such stocks which have a P/B ratio less than one.

Current Ratio

The ratio is the snapshot of the asset and liabilities of any company. You will find the assets and liabilities a company has in its balance sheet. Find such quality stocks which have a current ratio of more than 1.5.
Current Ratio
Let’s assume, the current assets of any company is $ 1200 and current liabilities is $ 400 then,
Current Ratio =  [$1200/$ 400] = 3.

Debt to Equity Ratio

An individual needs to analyze the total outstanding debt the company has to repay either in long term or in the short term and the asset the company owes.
Debt to Equity Ratio
Preferably one individual should invest in those stocks which are either debt-free or have very marginal debt not more than 0.25.

Healthy dividend payout and stable Earnings-per-share

Let’s assume, a company has a net income of $ 10,000 per year. It Pays $5,000 in a preferred dividend to investors. It has 50 shares outstanding.
Earning Per Share
It is a good idea to invest your money in those stocks that regularly pay a dividend and deliver Healthy dividend payout. The stocks which have delivered healthy dividend-paying must have following features
  • Consistent dividend payout over the past 5 years.
  • High dividend yield for the last 5 years.
  • Growth in dividend per share from time to time.

The cash flow of the company

To understand a company’s true economic condition one should check the free cash flow of the concerned company. Free cash flow actually reveals the profit the company makes. It implies a broader range in the company’s functioning in overall business.
Whenever you check the free cash flow of a company, you should analyze from which source the company is gaining its capital for its day-to-day business. Usually, there are two sources, the first one is earning from running operation i.e., business and the second one is receiving debt from the market i.e., debt financing. If the company runs its operation from the profit earned by running operation you should stay invested with the company. But if the company runs its business by debt financing, naturally the debt will increase time to time. So, stay clear of these types of companies or stocks.
Free Cash Flow - undervalued stocks
Free Cash flow is one of the most reliable and widely used metrics among value investors, as it provides an accurate position of the company’s financial condition. In simple words, free cash flow is an account of how much cash a company is left with after paying for all expenses.
Companies that manage to generate consistently large cash flows without incurring much capital expenditure are always valued higher by investors. Negative free cash flows are a sign of the deteriorating health of a company.

Current Inflation

In countries like India, you should watch out inflation because the P/E ratio is adversely affected by current inflation. Owing to inflation, retail consumers spend less and the expenses rise. This will decrease the Earning per share. When EPS falls, it, in turn, increases the P/E ratio making stocks overvalued. In addition, for a growing economy like India too low inflation rate also adversely affects the stocks. So, as an intelligent investor, you should analyze the following points,
  • Reserves growth must be more than the current inflation rate.
  • Asset growth must be more than the current inflation rate.
  • Sales growth must be more than the current inflation rate.
  • Cash flow growth must be more than the current inflation rate.

Enterprise Value

You need to analyze whether the enterprise value of any stock is less than its market capitalization. Usually when the stock’s enterprise value is less than the market capitalization, then it is considered that the stock is undervalued.

How to calculate the enterprise value of any undervalued stocks?

Enterprise Value = Market Capitalization + [Debt – Cash]
calculation of Market capitalization
Suppose a company has a huge cash reserve. Its cash reserve is so enormous that the company may clear all the debt from the cash reserve only. But this is the rarest of rear cases. So, you need to pick those stocks which match the nearest one.

Top 10 Undervalued stocks to buy in India

StockCompounded Sales GrowthCompounded Profit GrowthPrice to Earnings Ratio
Power Grid Corporation Of India20.49%17.82%11.56
HEG11.16%47.67%2.67
J Kumar Infraprojects15.43%12.50%6.67
Deep Industries35.79%45.64%6.99
LIC Housing Finance11.76%12.80%12.19
Indiabulls Housing Finance25.34%25.05%10.14
Yes Bank19.57%26.56%14
Ashok Leyland16.03%56.73%13.71
Dilip Buildcon32%20.38%11.31
Finally, you need to consider any specific sector which is cyclical in nature. This kind of sector tends to deliver better returns when the economy is booming. Spot any company after analysis of price fluctuations during the market correction or after a disappointing quarter or year. Then stay invested for the long term to yield better returns.
Hope, this article will help you to find undervalued stocks which can deliver better returns in the near future. If you have any questions feel free to comment so that we have a discussion. If you have found this post helpful feel free to share it with your loved ones.



This post was last modified on 20th April 2019 17:43

how to invest


The challenge of answering how to invest money is quite daunting. Why? Because our ‘future financial well-being’ is at stake. Hence figuring out how to invest becomes a challenge.

So investing money is daunting, challenging, and things are at stake. Am’I trying to solve a problem or raising fear? Sorry for my ‘tone’, but I am only trying to make a point. Investing can be overwhelming for some.
In this state of overwhelming thoughts, what’s the first step a person takes to learn investment? Searches the internet. Here the information is endless. But often the reliability of such info is questionable.


How to invest money - Learning reliability

I will try to help you…

How I will help? By simplifying the complexities of investing. How? I will explain investment in simple colloquial language (no jargons).
This article can be a good guide for beginners.


How to invest money - Reading simple language2

How to invest money…

In my endeavour of figuring out how to invest money, I decided to take baby-steps. Why? Because I could not afford to learn it in a wrong way. Afterall it’s our hard earned money that we invest, right?
So how I did it? What was the first step? It was year 2007-2008 when I first read the book “Rich Dad Poor Dad”. It explained me the necessity of having financial intelligence.
The next essential step was to learn the basics of investing.


How to invest money - Read Book then basics2

Investment Basics…

Frankly speaking, investment is a long subject. To make it concise, specific and practical I have broken down the basics into following three (3) logical questions:
  • What is investment?
  • Why we must invest money (goals)?
  • Where to invest money?
Why we are answering these questions? Because if we can answer these basic questions, it will automatically trigger right investment decisions in times to come.


How to invest money - What Why Where

#1. What is investment?

Investment is a process of buying an asset with the following two objectives:
  1. Income generation (like interest, dividends etc).
  2. Capital growth.
Key is to remember that, both these objectives cannot be realised immediately. It will only start happening gradually over time.
The concept is like this:
  • You already have some spare money.
  • Use it to buy assets.
  • These assets will yield returns.
  • In turn, assets will grow with time.


How to invest money - What is investment - process2
How much spare money one must have to start investing? Even with very small sums of money one can start investing (like Rs.500 per month).
Such small-small amounts invested regularly can build great wealth over time. How? By the power of compounding.
The truth of investing money correctly hides in a very special concept…
Always buy assets at undervalued prices.
What it means by undervalued price? It is a price at which the assets can yield best returns.


How to invest money Undervalued assets high returns2

#2. Why we invest money (goals)?

Investment of money is essential for “wealth building”. It is also important to buy “right assets”. But all these must be done with a purpose (goal).
A goal-less investing will eventually loose its steam, and the process will come to an abrupt stop. Even worse, the invested money will get spent on needless things.
This is one reason why experts often recommend to first fix a goal, and then start investing in accordance with it. This way there will be both a ‘plan’ and ‘purpose’ of investing.
It is extremely important to practice “goal based investing“.


How to invest money - Goal of investing2

#3. Where to invest money?

This is where this quick guide on “how to invest money” becomes practical. How? It will tell you various investment alternatives available for us to buy in the market.
We are investing money to buy what? Assets. There are many types of assets which we can buy as investments. Let’s see which are these different types of assets.

#3.1 Equity

What is equity? Stocks and mutual funds.
What a beginner must do? Equity is a good investment alternative for all. But here the ‘risk of loss’ is also high.
How to manage this risk? In two ways:
  1. By buying equity at undervalued price.
  2. By holding equity for long term.
How does this help? Equity is basically a portion of a company. When we buy a portion of it (as stocks), we become eligible for a share of profit in the company.
Companies shares their profits in two ways:
  1. As dividends.
  2. By assuring stock price growth over time.


How to invest money - Equity - risk of loss
But dividend and price growth cannot start to yield immediately. It takes time for the companies to convert the equity money into profits. Hence investors must wait (at least a year) to see returns starting to flow-in.
In case of good companies, the longer one stays invested better will be the returns.
Example: Berkshire Hathaway, Coca Coal, TCS, RIL, Infosys etc. Read more about the equity returns here:
Remember: For beginners it is a point to note that, equity is the best available alternative for long term wealth creation. In equity, one can start with smaller amounts of money getting invested regularly over a period of time. Moreover, the return of equity is best.

#3.2 Other Investment Alternatives…

No investment plan can be tagged as a superior option compared to the other. Each has their own utility and importance. Depending upon ones goalsa right investment must be picked.
For beginners, who has only limited spare money available for investing, and is also investing for long term goals can go with equity.


How to invest money - Equity vs other options

Essential Precondition before one starts to invest…

This is a rule which is worth remembering. I consider it even powerful than investing itself. What is it?
Becoming debt free before starting to invest…
There is always this dilemma, whether to pay-off debt first or invest the spare money?
For beginners it is always better to clear debt first. Becoming debt free and then starting to invest can be a big confidence booster. Read more about it here:


How to invest money - Why to be debt free before investing2
Why debt shall be paid-off? Because debt is something which is gradually draining our money. Tapping this drain-hole before investing is only logical, right?

Trading and investing are not same…

There are two types of people available in the world of investing.
First, people who invest money to earn their livelihood. They are called traders.
Second, people who invest money to build wealth gradually. They are called investors.


How to invest money - Trader vs investor
As a beginner, I will advice my readers to aspire to become an investor (Warren Buffett, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala etc). Read more about value investing.
Why to consider investing over trading? Because in trading the risk of loss is too high. Why? Because in trading, one deals with ‘shorter’ holding periods.
When one is dealing with equity, expecting positive growth in short term is like expecting a win in a game of gambling.
When one is holding equity for longer periods, risk of loss is greatly minimised. How? Read moe about it here:
Note: In short term one can only make smaller gains. Over a same period of time, even several small-small gains with be less than one long term gains. Why? Because in short term investing the power of compounding is lost.


How to invest money - Trading vs investing

How tough is making money from investment?

Frankly speaking, earning smaller returns from investing is very easy. The difficulty creeps in when we aspire for higher returns.
What’s the need for higher returns? To beat inflation.
Let’s understand it like this, there are investment alternatives in India which can yield small returns with almost zero risk.
These are called “debt based investment plans”. Few examples of debt based plans with their potential returns are as below:
  • Savings account: 3.5% p.a.
  • Fixed deposit: 7% p.a.
  • Retirement plans: 8.5%
  • Debt based mutual funds: 9% p.a etc.
Zero risk and reasonable returns. All is looking fine, right? But the problem with these investment alternatives is that they cannot beat inflation.
What is the issue with inflation?


How to invest money - Inflation expense growth vs wealth growth
Due to inflation, our expense increases over time. Hence it is essential for us to build wealth to keep pace with the rising prices.
In this situation, if one is investing in low return investment options (risk free options), it will not beat inflation.
Hence we must take “calculated risks” and invest in equity. How to take calculated risks?
  • By buying assets at undervalued prices.
  • By staying invested in equity for long term.

Conclusion

Investing money in a ‘right way’ is a necessity, it is not an option. Why? Because our financial well being is dependent on the success of our investments.
How to invest money? Buying few stocks and mutual funds here and there in the name of investment will not work. What is essential is the following:
  • Building a strong foundation of investment know-how.
  • Using this knowledge to build a strong equity portfolio.
Why equity? Because it is equity which will help us to beat inflation in long term, also build required wealth.
Have a happy investing.
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